Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
